Construction Sector starting to slowdown | Central Statics Office


by BRegs Blog

The following two articles examine recent data release by the Central Statics Office (CSO) and suggest a slowing down of Ireland’s fragile construction sector recovery. Mirroring recent data on falling completions released by the Department of the Environment, recent CSO figures suggests that the pace and extent of Ireland’s construction sector recovery may have been overstated by politicians, the media and vested interests. Building Regulations introduced last March, upcoming planning legislation and recent developments regarding social and affordable housing provisions along with financing difficulties may all be contributing to a slowdown in development, despite double-digit price increases and a developing housing crisis in recent months.

“Irish industrial production rose 20% in the first four months of 2015 while construction fell 2.6% in the first quarter according to data today from the CSO…

The CSO said that the volume of output in building and construction decreased by 2.6% in the first quarter of 2015 when compared with the preceding period. This reflects a decrease of 5.6% in the volume of residential building work…

On an annual basis, the volume of output in building and construction increased by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2015*. There was an increase of 7.0% in the value of production in the same period. The annual rise in the volume of output reflects year-on-year increases of 21.8% and 3.4% respectively in residential building and non residential building work. The volume of output in civil engineering fell by 1.3% in the year to Quarter 1 2015.

*The CSO said that given the unprecedented low base this series is starting from, the CSO will continue to monitor the quality and comparability of this new data series.

Conall Mac Coille, Davy chief economist, commented: Irish industrial production up 20% year-to-date Irish industrial production data, released June 10th, show another robust 1.3% rise on the month, with output up 9.4% on the year. This represents a slowdown in the annual growth rate from 27.1% in March, concentrated in the ‘modern’ sector. But the bigger picture is that industrial output is up by an enormous 20% in the first four months of 2015 compared with last year, with the weak euro and stronger demand helping growth…

Construction data released today for Q1 2015 are a little disappointing, showing output down -2.6% on the quarter, up just 1.4% year-on-year. The contraction in Q1 appears to have been led by residential construction which fell by 5.6%, albeit still up 21.8% year-on-year (Table 2). Hopefully, this weakness is temporary. The Irish construction PMI survey bounced back sharply in May to 63.3, up from the trough of 52.0 in February, led by a rebound in the homebuilding component.”

“Construction output falls in first three months of 2015

Residential building eased compared to final quarter of 2014. Residentil property output fell in the first quarter of the year but on an annual basis, it rose almost 22 per cent.

Building and construction output fell in the first quarter of the year as residential building eased in the opening months of 2015.

The headline index fell by 2.6 per cent compared with the preceding three-month period, with residential building down 5.6 per cent. In contrast, the volume of civil engineering work rose by 7.9 per cent, with non-residential building up 1.3 per cent.

On a value basis, the index rose 1.8 per cent.

However, looking at the figures year on year, the volume of output rose by 1.4 per cent in the first quarter, with value up 7 per cent. That reflected a year-on-year increase of 21.8 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively in residential building and non residential building work.”

Other posts of interest:

Residential completions continue to stall | Department of the Environment

SCSI: Republic built 2,000 fewer new homes than official estimate | Irish Times

More Fire Safety evacuations, European Committee of Social Rights court case & uninhabitable rented housing | NEWS

Peter McVerry says he’d be embarrassed if he was Alan Kelly | Journal

Building regulations make Dodge City look good | Irish Examiner

Regulations add up to €60k to house cost | Karl Deeter

Dáil: Fall in Housing Construction following introduction of Building Control Regulations

“ decline, driven primarily by the Construction PMI reading”| Constantin Gurdgiev

Here we go again…house building in crisis

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